Perspective 2010: Publishing Predictions

By Ted Treanor

Publishing predictions for 2010 abound. As a digital publishing pioneer and visionary, Ted Treanor has been well positioned ahead of the curve, with a unique vantage point to see what’s in store for the industry. At this tipping point, publishing convergence of print and digital has collided with mainstream. Let us know what you think of these predictions.

Let’s see if 13 predictions will be lucky for publishing.

  1. New eReading devices will proliferate. The market is responding like the California gold rush.  Not only will there be new companies launching in 2010, but big electronics firms will have their products. CES will be a haven for digital reading, which will astound everyone.
  2. Pricing experimentation will take center stage.
  3. Digital sales channels both retail and distribution will grow rapidly.
  4. The ePub standard (IDPF.org) will strengthen as an international industry standard. ePub will compete with PDF for the top format for commercial content.
  5. The big surprise this year will be the number of large recognized companies that will strategically target the digital publishing eReading and content space. At least one major communications infrastructure company (possibly wireless) will stake a claim through a publishing partnership. Other prime segments will be computer manufacturers and printer manufactures.
  6. Trade associations will scramble to stay relevant in their attempt to lead members through this time of convergence of print and digital.
  7. Content workflow using XML technologies will become standard for single source production to multiple print and digital editions.
  8. Publishers will attempt to build direct relationships with their reader customers…not very successfully in 2010.
  9. Technology and services companies will further enable authors for self-publishing and in their sales goals. At least one big name author will experiment in self-publishing in 2010.
  10. eCatalogs will become a standard tool in selling content to booksellers, librarians, etc..
  11. Digital galleys will gain in popularity.
  12. E-content will be grafted into print in innovative ways.
  13. New ebook data reports and ebook directories will become ‘must-have’ resources. Gilbane Group has a series of three publishing transformation reports planned in 2010.

Follow me on Twitter @ ePubDr

ted (at) tedtreanor dot com

Posted on January 4th 2010 by tedtreanor

Filed under Digital Publishing, eBooks | 3 Comments »

3 Responses to “Perspective 2010: Publishing Predictions”

  1. Victor Finch responded on 11 Jan 2010 at 4:58 am #

    The idea of digital galleys has appeal, but there are always some errors that only seem to become obvious when ink meets paper.

    The tide of e-books is going to make for a tumultuous few years in the publishing world, I wonder who among the traditional publishers will be fleet footed enough to keep up, or if any of them will.

  2. John Dobbin responded on 14 Jan 2010 at 6:36 pm #

    Ted,
    I’d be very interested in your predictions on what you think will happen to authors royalties – rise, fall, change dramatically – with digitization and if trying to hold on to old royality models is going to be a major barrier to change for publishers.

  3. tedtreanor responded on 14 Jan 2010 at 7:01 pm #

    John,
    Print royalties will likely stay in-place, since change in an established publishing practice is VERY resistant to change. The authors list of large publishers may be trimmed down where they bet on fewer authors, paying large advances to a few. The result of that strategy means less advances and opportunity for the rest of their author stable.

    Digital royalties are another question. Traditional publishers have awakened. They are being aggressive at claiming ebook rights. Royalties are open for negotiations. Authors and their agents should work hard at nego the best deal. Publishers have been willing to give a little to settle on the control of e-rights. Another factor is that there are more, and better financed, e-publishers to compete for e-rights. Work it for your best interests.

    So, yes, many traditional publishers will try to hold onto old royalty models…it is consistent with their historic behavior. But, there are many new pubs and some innovative traditional publishers that will experiment with new models. Here is a new post “E” is for Experimentation” LINK
    http://publishingperspectives.com/?p=10332

    Here is an aggregated list of publishing predictions for 2010. LINK
    http://www.georgewalkley.com/2010/01/predictions-for-2010/

    Richard Curtis (e-Reads.com) agent has this 10-year prediction: LINK
    http://www.mediabistro.com/galleycat/publishing/richard_curtis_book_publishing_10_years_in_the_future_147570.asp

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